Biden and Trump shoulder to shoulder in Georgia and Texas

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Top line

Just over two weeks before Election Day, polls show Joe Biden and President Trump neck and neck in Georgia and Texas, two states that have not opted for a Democratic presidential candidate in decades and who exert a great influence on the Electoral College.

Highlights

A new Dallas Morning News/ The UT Tyler poll on Sunday found Biden to lead 2 points (46% -44%) among registered voters and 3 points among likely voters (48% -45%) in Texas.

To CBS News / YouGov survey showed Biden and Trump tied (49% -49%) in Georgia, with Biden’s strength.

Biden just drags Trump 0.1 point in an average of all polls in Texas (47.6% -47.5%) and leads by .4 points in Georgia (47.6% -47.2%).

Separate CBS polls On Sunday, Biden had a 2-point lead in Florida (50% -48%), and four points in North Carolina (51% -47%).

Key context

A victory for Biden in Texas or Georgia would almost certainly lead to a landslide victory for the Democratic candidate. However, the former vice president doesn’t necessarily need either state to win the White House, and most pundits have pointed to a different winning formula for the candidate. A more likely path for Biden, for example, is to keep the states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, while taking over Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Large number

38. This is the number of electoral votes for Texas, the second in the country after California (55.) Georgia has 16 electoral votes.

What to watch out for

Biden goes to travel in Georgia for a campaign event on Tuesday, an indication that his campaign views the state as competitive.

Surprising fact

A big reason for the success of Biden’s Georgia poll is its strength with seniors. According to CBS News, Biden halved Trump’s advantage in 2016 with demographics.

Tangent

A Democrat hasn’t won Texas since 1976 and Georgia since 1992. Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016 and Georgia by 5.1 points.

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About Darnell Yu

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